Analysis of the Theory of Statistical Estimation

Abstract

The theory of statistical estimation is a central pillar of modern statistics, providing the conceptual and mathematical foundation for drawing conclusions about populations based on sample data. Its primary objective is to infer unknown parameters—such as means, variances, or proportions—using finite and often noisy observations. Because real-world data are inherently variable, statistical estimation offers a principled way to quantify uncertainty and assess the reliability of conclusions. Over the last century, the field has matured through the development of competing philosophies, optimality criteria, and practical estimation techniques that continue to play essential roles in science, economics, engineering, and machine learning. A fundamental distinction in the theory of estimation lies between point estimation and interval estimation. Point estimation focuses on providing a single “best guess” for an unknown parameter. Examples include the sample mean for estimating a population mean or the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for a parameter defined through a probability model. Interval estimation, by contrast, recognizes that any estimate derived from a sample is uncertain and therefore seeks to construct a range—such as a confidence interval or credible interval—within which the parameter is likely to lie. While point estimators provide simplicity and convenience, interval estimators offer a more robust understanding of uncertainty, making them indispensable in scientific reporting. Central to evaluating the quality of an estimator are several optimality criteria, most notably bias, variance, and mean squared error (MSE). An estimator is unbiased if its expected value equals the true parameter; however, unbiasedness alone does not guarantee practical usefulness.