Forecast-Based Uncertainty and Risk Analysis of Major Cereal Production in Tamil Nadu

Abstract

Reliable cereal production forecasting is essential for effective agricultural planning; however, point forecasts alone do not adequately capture the uncertainty associated with future output. This study evaluates forecast uncertainty and production risk across major cereals using forecast-derived measures rather than model re-estimation. Forecasted production values for paddy, sorghum, pearl millet, finger millet, and maize over the period 2025–2029 were analysed using prediction interval–based indicators and dispersion measures. Forecast uncertainty was quantified through the width of prediction intervals and relative uncertainty measures, while production risk was assessed using the coefficient of variation and a composite risk index. The results reveal substantial variation in forecast-induced risk across cereals. Paddy and maize exhibit relatively stable forecasted production with low variability and risk indices, indicating lower exposure to uncertainty. In contrast, pearl millet and sorghum show higher relative uncertainty and elevated risk levels, reflecting greater vulnerability to production fluctuations. Finger millet displays moderate risk characteristics. The findings demonstrate that cereals differ markedly in their exposure to forecast uncertainty, largely due to variability in cultivated area and production scale. By emphasizing uncertainty-aware evaluation, the study provides a practical framework for comparing cereals under risk and supports informed, crop-specific policy interventions aimed at enhancing resilience in cereal production systems.