Myanmar as a Battleground: India–China Rivalry and the Future of the Indo-Pacific

Abstract

The rivalry between India and China in Myanmar signifies one of the critical dimensions of Indo-Pacific geopolitics, whereby both powers try to exert influence in the wake of political turmoil in Myanmar. This paper examines the historical context, economic interests, strategic security concerns, and the impact of Myanmar's post-2021 coup crisis on this competition. China's Belt and Road Initiative through the CMEC aims at a safe passage to the Indian Ocean to avoid vulnerabilities such as those posed by the Malacca Strait, whereas India's Act East Policy through projects like the KMTTP aims at better connectivity with its northeast and counters Chinese encirclement. Such an analysis would underpin how hitherto several local ethnic armed organizations and the weakened junta have caused disruptions in projects, which act as causal mechanisms that create opportunities and challenges for both countries. Based on realist theory and regional security complexes, this paper will demonstrate that India's mere reactive approach would limit leverage vis-à-vis China's proactive investments, but further supporting the pro-democratic movement in Myanmar may increase India's influence in balancing Chinese hegemony. The implications are going to be an escalation of tensions in the region and potentials for U.S.-India cooperation. Policy recommendations for de-escalation and long-term engagement are included in the study's conclusion.