Arid Alarms: Conservation Scenarios and Priorities for the Vanishing Great Indian Bustard in Western India

Abstract

The Great Indian Bustard (Ardeotis nigriceps), a critically endangered species emblematic of India's arid grassland ecosystems, faces existential threats from habitat fragmentation and anthropogenic pressures in Western India. This review synthesizes extant scientific literature, Supreme Court judgments, mining proposals, and contemporary research to delineate conservation priorities, scenarios, and the impacts of limestone mining on the species' survival.

Current population estimates indicate fewer than 150 individuals globally, with the majority concentrated in Rajasthan (approximately 122 in the Thar Desert) and fragmented subpopulations in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh. This represents a drastic decline from historical abundances, driven by factors including habitat loss, power line collisions, poaching, and inherently low reproductive rates. Studies by the Wildlife Institute of India (WII) elucidate these vulnerabilities, highlighting population viability analyses predicting extinction within decades absent intervention, alongside habitat selection models favoring open grasslands with minimal disturbance.

Conservation scenarios encompass optimistic trajectories involving captive breeding, habitat restoration, and community engagement, potentially stabilizing populations at 200–300 individuals by 2050; moderate outcomes with partial mitigations maintaining ~100 birds but risking genetic erosion; and pessimistic projections of extirpation by 2040 under unchecked development. Limestone mining exacerbates these threats, particularly in the Thar Desert and Kutch regions, through direct habitat alteration, hydrological disruption, dust pollution, and indirect effects such as increased predation and human encroachment. Empirical evidence from ecological assessments demonstrates biodiversity declines and ecosystem degradation in mined landscapes.

Supreme Court verdicts, notably the 2021 ruling in M.K. Ranjitsinh v. Union of India mandating underground power lines in priority habitats to avert collisions (estimated at 18 annually), and the 2024 judgment affirming constitutional rights against climate impacts while balancing renewable energy imperatives, underscore legal frameworks for protection. Mining proposals incorporate wildlife conservation plans advocating habitat offsets, anti-poaching measures, and monitoring; however, implementation deficiencies persist, as revealed in environmental compliance audits.

The present article advocates for integrated, multi-stakeholder strategies, including enhanced enforcement of environmental regulations and landscape-scale planning, to mitigate mining interference and secure the species' persistence. Such approaches are imperative to avert irreversible biodiversity loss in Western India's grasslands