Climatic and Socio-Ecological Drivers of Malaria and Dengue Dynamics in Jaipur, India

Abstract

This study examines the climatic and socio-ecological factors driving malaria and dengue transmission in Jaipur, India, from July 2023 to June 2024. Conducted across urban (Vidhyadhar Nagar, Muralipura) and rural (Chomu, Amer) zones, the research integrates primary entomological data, secondary disease case data, and climatic variables (temperature, humidity, rainfall). Results show strong positive correlations between humidity (r=0.73,p=0.0076 for cases; r=0.76,p=0.0039 for HI) and rainfall with dengue incidence, with urban Aedes House Index (HI) peaking at 80.0 in August 2023, corresponding to 29 dengue cases. Malaria exhibits weaker climatic correlations (e.g., humidity: r=0.47,p=0.1227 for cases), driven by rural socio-ecological factors like agricultural water bodies, with Anopheles HI peaking at 80.0 in August 2023, tied to 10 malaria cases. Findings highlight the need for targeted vector control, including urban source reduction for dengue and rural water management for malaria, aligned with WHO and NVBDCP guidelines.