Growth and Instability Analysis of Major Cash Crops in India

Abstract

After the transformation in the economic sector, the agricultural sector of India has been experiencing drastic changes with cash crops which contribute a significant part in the export earnings as well as in rural liberalization in 1991. This paper focuses on the increasing and unstable exportations of large scale cash crops in India. The analysis scores trends in using time-series data area, production, productivity and exports of major crops, that is, cotton, jute, tea, coffee, etc. cashew, spices, and tobacco. In this research, Compound Annual Growth rate (CAGR) is used to measure variability calculates growth performance and the Cuddy Della Valle Instability Index to across three sub-periods: 1991–2001, 2001–2011, and 2011–2022. The outcomes indicate that there is heterogeneous growth of crops and periods. Spices emerge as the most active crop, having always a high growth in production, productivity, and exports. Cotton is very unstable in the aspect of growth trade off, especially a trade off in performance in export. Conversely, habitual foodstuffs like jute and tea have fairly stable trends but low growth prospects. The cashew and coffee show the mid moderate a growth with average variation. The results also show that instability is already top in exports because it has a greater exposure to global price volatility and market in securities in the post-liberalization period.